A recent report from the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) highlights that while ASEAN countries don't need to immediately phase out their coal fleets to combat climate change, coal will remain a crucial part of the energy transition. The report suggests that allowing more time to enhance electricity grids for renewable energy could facilitate a smoother transition. However, this implies that coal might be used as a temporary solution.

To mitigate the environmental impact of coal, ACE recommends using clean coal technologies in coal-fired power plants and adopting carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to replace outdated and inefficient coal plants.

This perspective is also supported by the World Coal Association, now known as Future Coal, an international coal lobbying group.

While this plan appears promising, it oversimplifies potential risks and assumes that technological solutions will deliver as promised without thorough risk assessments. This article explores why ACE's proposed pathway may face significant challenges.

False Solutions

The first "clean coal technology" proposed by ACE is high efficiency, low emissions (HELE) technology, primarily involving supercritical coal power plants. These plants use less coal while generating more energy, making them seem more environmentally friendly than traditional coal power plants.

However, supercritical technology does not guarantee a solution to emissions problems. Its success in reducing coal emissions varies. For instance, a 2019 Australian study found that supercritical coal power plants underperformed compared to regular power plants, with higher breakdown rates leading to frequent electricity price spikes between 2018 and 2019, a decade after the technology was introduced.

Failing to provide consistent electricity supplies contradicts ACE's goal of preventing energy shortages and ensuring a smooth transition to renewable energy.

Risks of Carbon Capture

ACE also advocates for carbon capture and storage (CCS), which captures carbon emissions from power plants and stores them underground. However, CCS has a history of project failures and a relatively low success rate.

The industry claims that CCS can capture 95% of carbon emissions from each project. Yet, 2023 reports from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) found that no current project consistently captures more than 80% of carbon emissions, with some only achieving 15%.

Leakage from stored carbon is another risk, potentially negating the mitigated emissions and contaminating groundwater, posing risks to nearby communities. Proponents argue that proper implementation minimizes leakage risks, but even a small leak can have significant long-term consequences, such as temperature increases. Developing countries like Indonesia, with regulatory governance challenges, may face higher risks.

Economic viability is another concern. As CCS systems approach 100% efficiency, capturing additional carbon dioxide becomes increasingly difficult and expensive. This implies higher future costs for larger equipment, additional time, and energy.

Moreover, investing in expensive CCS technology prolongs the life of coal-fired power plants, which pose significant environmental risks. The same resources could be used to develop renewable energy infrastructure like wind turbines or solar panels.

Alternative Solutions

ACE should consider less risky and less capital-intensive solutions with multiple positive impacts, such as community-based renewable energy, aggressive reforestation, and halting deforestation.

Community-based renewable energy can help energy-poor areas build their own energy sources. People living in close proximity can share costs and resources to install and maintain off-grid renewables, encouraging widespread adoption of cleaner energy sources with minimal land use issues.

Aggressive reforestation, unlike CCUS, does not require heavy machinery or specialized knowledge. Forests and soil currently store 30% of emissions, absorbing atmospheric carbon emissions. Well-planned city forests could effectively absorb more CO2 than previously thought.

ACE can also consider replacing old, inefficient coal plants with renewables like solar and wind, especially for non-industrial electricity facilities. The costs of these technologies have been falling rapidly for years.

As most ASEAN member states are developing countries, they must carefully select suitable technologies. Importing advanced technology with substantial startup costs could become a costly effort with limited benefits.